Oh how the world had changed. I thought I'd take a little journey back to the final commentary blog I wrote in 2019, before the last General Election. It is fascinating (to me at least)
This whole election has been the most demoralising and disheartening of modern times. In the early Autumn, I had hopes that the fact that the opposition parties and even sane Tories were working together to prevent a hard #Brexit might mean that the national interest might take precedence over tribalism. I had hoped that this experience, demonstrating that working together might deliver results that could not be achieved by digging a hole and standing in it shouting at the world couldn't. I was right, but sadly not in the way I hoped for, or even expected. The party that learned the lesson was the Brexit Party. Sadly it seems that what they wanted to achieve was peerages and plum jobs for themselves, standing down against the Tories. Although this may only account for 3-4% of the vote in some seats, that could be decisive. This should have caused a period of reflection within the other parties. Being fair to the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru, they did. Deals were done to stand aside in seats where one of the parties had a realistic chance. Sadly, the Labour party has decided it wants nothing to do with sensible deals and pacts. Their logic is that the Lib Dems got into bed with the Tories in 2010, so they will have nothing to do with them. Ever. Furthermore, they have decided that every single policy of the Tories between 2010-2015 is entirely the fault of Lib Dem Leader Jo Swinson. This message has been tweeted and facebook'd relentlessly. What has always disgusted me about this strategy is that it is totally dishonest. Swinson was a junior member of a junior coalition partner. All parties operate whip systems and if you look at all of the things that many Labour MP's voted for under Blair, there are far worse. Labour took us into an illegal war. Whilst many solely blame Blair, he was chosen by the party and his policies embraced by the Labour NEC. A majority of Labour MP's would have him back tomorrow if it was a choice between him and Jeremy Corbyn. They tried to deselect Corbyn twice. Labour gave us the Iraq war. Labour raised tuition fees. Labour brought privatisation to the health service with PPI. I could go on, but is it really helpful? We are now living in 2019 and we have a massive crisis facing us.
And what happened? Boris won a Landslide and the rest is history. But the world has spun on it's head since then. I see no Labour attacks on Ed Davey in the vitriolic manner of those at Jo Swinson. Jeremy Corbyn is no longer a member of the Labour Party and is standing as an Independent. We've seen what Brexit really means and we are picking up the tab for it. I thought Labour would be out of office for a generation. What Johnson, Truss and Sunak have done to the Tories beggars belief. I can't say I am at all pleased because they have shafted us all in the process.
The catastrophe is not on any one of them. It is on the whole of Conservative Party. I do not wish for their complete annihilation as that would open the door for Reform, who are Tories on steroids. I do hope that they get genuinely clobbered and are out for at least two terms, to allow sensible people to repopulate the party. It seems an age ago that Cameron was raging against global warming, hugging hoodies and passing legislation for equal marriage. Every iteration of Tory leadership since has drifted further right and this is where it has got them. I especially hope that the Lib Dems clobber them in "Blue Wall" seats. The Tories compeletely tucked up the Lib Dems in coalition, so for me it would pleasing to see the Lib Dems exact revenge at the ballot box. In truth, all of the coalitions best and most progressive policies were courtesy of the Lib Dems. The party made some huge mistakes, but the nine years that followed the coalition have shown us what the Lib Dems prevented. At least when the Tories were free to bugger the economy up, some degree of sanity in public finances had been restored.
Much as I'd love to see Lib Dems win in Barnet, they won't. I am an advocate of tactical voting and the one thing I will say is that wherever you are, vote for whoever will keep the Conservatives out (unless you live in Clacton, where even I would vote Tory to keep Farage out).
In the London Borough of Barnet that means voting for David Pinto-Duschinsky in Hendon ward, Sarah Sackman in Finchley and Dan Tomlinson in Chipping Barnet. They are the Labour candidates.
I will say a few words about each.
David Pinto-Duschinsky is a decent man. I know him as he's been around in Barnet Politics for a good few years. He had a terrible time at the hustings in 2019, trying to defend a Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn in an area where a substancial segment of the population hated Corbyn for his views on Israel. David was always calm and dignified in the face of some very harsh abuse. The fact he stuck around says a lot for him.
Sarah Sackman, I've known since the Save Friern Barnet Library campaign. She is far and away the most capable and competent politician we've seen in the Borough since Thatcher (who I didn't like but you cannot argue with her impact). I suspect that Sarah will one day be a minister. She is everything you'd want an MP to be and if she wins, I will be absolutely delighted.
I don't really know Dan Tomlinson, but I do know Theresa Villiers and her career is long past it's sell by date. Lets be charitable and say that she deserves to enjoy her retirement. I am sure that Dan Tomlinson will bring new energy to the job and at least try and represent everybody in the constituency properly. I don't think he'll have to work terribly hard to do a better job than his predecessor, should he win.
And remember that nothing is guaranteed in politics. In 2010, when the Tories came in, Labour thought Hendon was a shoe in. Andrew Dismore lost by 103 votes. Don't make the same mistake again.
My prediction is as follows
Hendon - Labour by 5,000 votes
Finchley - Labour by 3,000 votes
Chipping Barnet by 2,500 votes.
But HEY HO, what do I know, I'll just be glad when it's all over.
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