Thursday, 23 June 2016

The Referendum nightmare is nearly over

Today is the last day of your old, dull life. A Chinese curse says 'may you live in interesting times'. Personally I've found the campaign anything but interesting. Mindless tweets ad nauseum from ill informed commentators, endless porkies from politicians and endless blogs from me!

I think the public are sick to death of the whole thing. Over the last six weeks I've had less blog hits than at any time since I started writing it, save for a big spike when there was a burst water main in Mill Hill.

But the interesting times will come back. Tomorrow we'll awake to one of two starkly different visions of the future. One is (to me) a xenophobic nightmare, Farageworld, where we hate Johnny Foreigner. Cameron will go and God only knows who the Tories will pick to replace him. Presumably they would go with a Leaver and of these perhaps Gove is the candidate who has done most to enhance his credibility.

The other is 'business as usual' only it won't be. The Tories are hopelessly split. How can Humpty Dumpty be put together again? My bet is on Theresa May to be the next leader if Remain win.
I cannot see any circumstances where Cameron lasts long. He was already a lame duck having announced his intention to quit before the next election.

George Osborne also seems to have lost the trust of the Tory masses. I suspect both Cameron and Osborne secretly yearn for the good old days of the Coalition, where normal Tory infighting was suspended and The Lib Dems were blamed for everything. Back in those heady days, Cameron didn't have to spend all his time looking over his shoulder. He could simply get on with running the country.

In Effect we've had no government at all for months. All of this simply to try and sort out a bun fight in the Tory party. I suspect that whatever happens there will be massive recriminations.

This will be the second last blog I write on the referendum. The next one will to be to discuss the result. It will also doubtless be the first of many discussing the civil war that starts tomorrow in the Tory party.

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