There is only one nation on earth that has voluntarily given up nuclear arms. That nation is Ukraine. I was looking at some old photo's of my band recently and I fondly recalled the CND benefit gigs that we did. I can recall having long arguments with my Dad about CND. He felt I was a naive idiot for believing that dictatorships would respect any nation that voluntarily disarmed and adopted a neutral position. I pointed to the examples Switzerland and Sweden, who seemed to do alright. I had a dream last night that I was having a beer with him and he said "Do you still think supporting CND was a good idea?".
The expereinces of Ukraine would lead one to conclude that giving up nuclear weapons may not be the most sensible move. It also poses the question "what would have happened if Ukraine kept the nukes?". Would it have deterred Putin? Would any Ukrainian leader be crazy enough to launch a first strike in the event of a Russian invasion? It would have certainly given him pause for thought.
Some of the very first gigs I organised were CND benefit gigs. I also played quite a few locally. I asked myself if, in hindsight, I'd still have done that. Looking at the old pictures, I felt rather nostalgic, but I one has to ask if it was a sensible cause. On one level, I think CND's aims for a world without nuclear weapons is a completely morally justifiable position and it should be the goal of every politician. But CND believe that the UK should unilaterally give up its nuclear deterrent. This is a far more complicated question. It is also not as simple to answer as it was in the days when my Dad was around and we had those conversations. To me, the Presidency of Donald Trump laid bare just how fragile the worlds military alliances really are.
The UK does not really have an 'independent nuclear deterrent. We rent a system from the USA and we could only use it with their blessing. Trump may well end up back in the White House in a couple of years (or someone even worse). The plug could be pulled on the UK's Trident system at any time. I'm really not sure that, in the ever evolving world, it offers value for money. If the UK had a genuinely independent system, maybe I'd feel different, but I genuinely believe that Trident is not a good use of the UK's money and resources. Whilst Nato exists, I doubt anyone would seriously plan a nuclear attack on us, although a breakdown in diplomacy and an uncontrolled escalation of tensions leading to a nuclear war once again seems possible. I suspect that to Putin, the UK's deterrent makes us a more important target than Spain or Italy.
We need organisations like CND to ask the questions that they ask in a democratic society. You cannot face down people like Putin with good intentions, but a world where we move on from such leaders should always be a goal and it will never be achieved whilst there is a huge arms industry lobbying governments and supporting war mongers. There is a narrative in some quarters that the situation in Ukraine is somehow the fault of Nato. Anyone who actually knows Russia and the former Soviet Republics will know that this is absolute rubbish. The Putin regime is a very dangerous entity, but like many dictators, Putin has totally overplayed his hand and made some classic miscalculations. The failure of his plans has created a very dangerous situation, as his very survival is now at stake. I never really believed that a Russian or a USSR leader would deliberately start a nuclear war, although they nearly started one in 1983 when they misread the runes of a Nato exercise. That resulted in a whole swathe of new checks and balances to ensure that such a scenario didn't happen. Putin has shown a complete disregard for his own people and a contempt for his armed forces. Would he be crazy enough to use tactical nuclear missiles? I still, on balance, don't think so but I am far less sure than I ever was previously. The one thing I am 100% sure about is that if he does, the UK possessing Trident will in no way colour his decision and the concept that we would respond unilaterally without US approval is crazy.
In one conversation I had with my Dad, I remember saying that the UK had been the global superpower in the 19th century, the US in the 20th century. I asked who he thought would be the next superpower. His answer shocked me. He replied Australia. When I asked why, he said "If theres a nuclear war, they are well out of the way". I was neve rquite sure if he was joking or not.
By the way, is anyone in touch with the former Hendon CND organiser Tony Byrne. He has a video of the False Dots from 1984 that I'd love to get a copy of.
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