What is a Conservative in the United Kingdom? I used to think I knew, but I am really not too sure anymore. I was raised in a house where my mother was a socialist of Irish heritage and my father was a Conservative of Australian heritage. I rarely discussed politics with my father. It usually ended in bad tempered arguments. However I had a clear idea of what he believed a Conservative to be. My father was a bomber pilot for the RAF. He was a highly principled man who despised fascism, having seen it at first hand as a prisoner of war in 1944. His view of Conservatism was one that was one of competent management, pragmatism, outward looking, seeking to build trading links and ensuring businesses and business owners could go about their business with minimal state interference. He believed in a welfare state, but believed that where possible the role of this should be to lift people out of poverty, so they could stand on their own two feet.
He was a member of organisations such as the Rotary club, believing that business owners had a responsibility to be involved in the local community and also that it was incumbent on the better off to stick their hands in their pockets to support the less well off.
As someone who had fought in the armed forces, he believed that Labour could not be trusted with the security of the nation. He was not sympathetic to organisations such as CND that he believed were naive fools. He was a strong believer that technology would lift us all out of poverty and that innovations such as nuclear power were forces for the good. He loved cars, planes and travel. As it wasn't really on the radar before he passed away in 1987, I've no idea what his view would have been of climate change, but he trusted scientists, doctors and weathermen. He was a fab of Margaret Thatcher as he believed the Trades Unions were out of control in the 1970's and ruining the country. As an employer he believed in a fair deal for workers, but also felt that they did not understand the stresses and difficulties of running a business. When I was growing up, we had the three day week. It nearly bankrupted the family. We had all sorts of shortages and power cuts and he put the blame fairly and squarely on the Trades Unions.
Whilst I did not agree with his views (my mother was quite vocal in her views of his opinions), I respected him and I understood where he was coming from. I have always assumed that the vast majority of sensible Conservative supporters took the same view as him. I never believed they were evil, malicious or greedy. They just wanted sensible, pragmatic government.
We spent the summer being bored to death by a seemingly never ending leadership battle between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. The membership of the Tory party chose Truss to lead us. She struck me as a pretty uninspiring choice, but she won and she's now Prime Minister. I genuinely didn't know what to expect. She hadn't really outlined any particular policies, other than a general view that she was more right wing than Rishi Sunak.
When Truss took the keys to no 10, she had a full in tray. What were her priorities? My assumption had been that her no 1 priority would be to address the nations energy security crisis. The second priority would be to ensure that those hit by the cost of living crisis would have enough money to eat and stay warm this winter. The third priority would be to address the appalling state of the UK's state finances. despite over a decade of austerity, our finances are in a mess. The fourth priority would be to address inflation, which is driving up mortgage bills and putting even more stress on the budgets of home owning families with mortgages.
When I heard that the new chancellor was enacting a mini budget, I assumed that this was a sensible measure to address the paralysis caused by the slow implosion of Boris Johnson's government over the last year.
With all of those issues in the in tray, what did we get? A massive tax cut for millionaires. Abolition of VAT for Tourists. The reversal of the National Insurance raise that a Conservative chancellor proposed at the last budget. What has she done to resolve the energy security crisis? Her cunning plan is to allow fracking. This is madness. No sane company would invest money in this at the moment. The Truss government is trailing Labour by ten percentage points in the polls and are likely to revoke any licences as soon as they take office. Most fracking sites are in areas controlled by Conservative Councils, who are not at all keen on the concept. The UK desperately needs an energy security strategy that gives a clear plane for the UK's energy requirements for the next ten years. My view is that the UK should be not only seeking to be self sufficient. We should be looking to have a surpluss of energy generation facilities, from a mixture of sources, with a big emphasis on renewable and sustainable energy sources. In the short term, we will still require CO2 producing energy and as a nation we can't have lights going out in winter. What we should be doing is having a plan for where we want to be in 20 years and start building the infrastructure we need now.
The second priority, helping those in food and energy poverty. No decent and compassionate human being should be prepared to stand by and let people freeze and starve. I don't think anyone Tory, Labour or monster raving looney would argue with a policy that guaranteed that everyone can keep their heating on and have a sensible basic diet. I am not keen on means tested benefits, but if Truss had said "We have an emergency, so anyone who's income falls below a level that pays their rent/mortgage, heating and food bills will get emergency financial assistance to make up the difference", I doubt anyone in her party would argue. Instead, we get a £50,000 tax cut for people earning a million quid a year. I know a few people in such a bracket. I saw one at the weekend and asked whether getting an extra £50K a year would make him work harder. He just looked embarrassed and said "I've been looking to work less hard and this might help". Most of the people I know who have this sort of income worked extremely hard 20 years ago and are now reaping the benefits. I believe that the reason Truss did this was so that the extremely rich would donate to Tory coffers ahead of the election. As Labour are planning to reverse the cut, anyone on a million quid a year will lose £50K, so there is a damn good reason for them to help the Tories out. It's nbot exactly putting the nation first, but sadly human nature never likes the concept of the government taking lots of your cash.
The third priority, addressing the nations appalling finances. The Truss government has stated that this will be achieved through growth. She believes that huge tax cuts for the rich and abolishing bankers bonus caps will do the trick. I had an interesting conversation with a friend in banking. He reminded me that the bonuses were introduced as it was seen as a bit immoral that the bankers had caused the credit crunch, crashed the world economy, had a massive bale out to save their skins and so whilst the rest of us laboured under austerity, it was simply not right that the people who caused the mess were absolutely raking it in. What concerns me most is that the Truss government have produced no evidence to support their strategy. When we talk about growing the GDP there are only two ways this can be done. The first is to improve productivity of businesses. The second is to have mass immigration, so there are more people here working and spending money. It is interesting to read that the Tories are planning to reopen the doors for immigrants to fix the labour crisis. The truth is that by having mass immigration the GDP will rise and Truss will claim that her policy of giving bankers massive bonuses and tax cuts for the rich has worked. The reason she needs to open the taps to mass immigration is because Brexit has caused a labour crisis. I do wonder what will happen when the Tory masses twig what she's up to. Sadly, improving business efficiency, with tax breaks for firms investing is not something that they have considered. If I was truss, I'd give all small businesses a £20K allowance to offset investment in technology 100% against business taxes, in the form of tax credits. This would encourage firms to modernise. For medium sized firms, I'd raise this to £500,000 and for big firms £5 million. That would be a far better use of the cash than tax cuts for the mega rich.
As to the fourth priority. Rising interst rates. The pound is crashing this morning. The markets are spooked and think we are being governed by loonies. The Bank of England are most likely going to have to put interest rates up, meaning people with mortgages, young families etc are going to get clobbered. In short, it is a total mess.
As far as I can see, this mini budget is not just bad politics, it is doing massive damage to the UK. I honestly can't believe that any decent Tory can be happy with it. None of the policies that the Truss govt announced were sold to the membership during the contest. I wonder how many are having buyers regret? One person I spoke to over the weekend said "The majority of Tory members are old, have paid off their mortgages and are well off, so they don't give a stuff". I can't believe anyone will be thrilled to see their children and grandchildren struggling, the countries finances falling apart and the value of their savings eroded by inflation. I spoke last week to one Tory supporting friend. He has just sold up and moved from Mill Hill to Essex. He has a bigger property and has put £80k in cash in the bank. With inflation at 10%, his lump sum will lose £8,000 in value over the next year. If there is an election in two years, he'll have lost £16,000. Will such Tory voters really be putting their tick in the box of an adminstration that clearly doesn't give a stuff about them.
The majority of Tory MP's didn't support Truss in the leadership contest. They have the option of stopping this madness. It would be hugely embarrassing for them to call a new leader to heel after a couple of weeks, but if you know someone is destroying the economy, surely any Tory who is a patriot would not simply sit on their hands out of loyalty to an unelected leader, enacting bonkers policies that were not in the manifesto. If Truss wants to follow this course, she should put it to the country. The only people who can save us from this madness are real Conservatives in the House of Commons. It is time for them to stand up. The Tories have a majority because the nation rejected a Jeremy Corbyn government, who they thought would wreck the economy. How on earth can they sit back and let Truss do the same?
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