Tuesday, 27 March 2012

Politicalbetting.com website backs Brian Coleman to lose

The first cracks are starting to appear. the influential website - http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/03/27/sean-fear-takes-a-look-at-the-london-assembly-elections/ - has said it expects Brian Coleman to lose his seat in the GLA elections. They state :-

"In my view, Barnet and Camden is very likely to fall, as it requires a swing of only 5.5% to Labour, and incumbent Brian Coleman is unpopular among London Conservatives."
Whilst this is not exactly a surprise for anyone in Barnet, it is certainly the first concrete sign that the cracks are appearing in the Brian Coleman campaign strategy. The pundits I trust above all others are those who are involved in gambling. If and when Coleman loses his seat, it will be interesting to see how the Barnet Tories react to what was such an obvious cliff edge to drive off.

It's not as if any of them really think he's popular. They all seem to have adopted the Ostritch position to his impending demise, burying their heads in the sand and saying "Of course Brian will win". Even the quite sensible ones seem to have caught the bug. What they forget is that listening to the views of Lynton Crosby is far less likely to give you the real picture than listening to ordinary instinctive Conservatives in Barnet saying how heartily sick of the man they are. 


Don't Call Me Dave said...

My late grandfather used to say “If you want to bet, be a bookie”. They always win in the long run.

That said, I am still not convinced that Andrew Dismore will win. It is true, of course, that Brian Coleman is very unpopular amongst many traditional Conservative voters, but that does not mean that they will automatically switch their allegiance to Labour. At best, some may abstain.

For Dismore to win, he needs to tell people what he stands for. He needs to be campaigning hard in key marginal areas. My ward is a split Labour / Conservative ward. It is just the sort of ward Labour could win if they got off their lazy backsides and did some work. Nobody has been round here for 2 years.

It is not enough for Dismore to hope that he will win on the strength of an anti-Coleman vote alone. He needs to give people a positive reason to vote for him. That is where he may come unstuck because, frankly, the two main candidates are birds of a feather.

Don't Call Me Dave said...

The article on the Political Betting website was written by a guest writer who is a Conservative activist and former Hertsmere councillor. He was expressing his opinion that Brian Coleman will lose his seat. His opinion may, of course, turn out to be correct but his comments do not have the same ‘authority’ as those of a bookmaker who is prepared to risk his own money and give odds that Coleman will lose.

Morris Hickey said...

I have to say that I was disappointed to read his view of the situation here in Havering & Redbridge. I shall just have to pray more frequently between now and 3 May.