Thursday, 22 May 2014

Polls have closed in the Barnet Council elections - A few observations

Right, so that's it done and dusted for another four years (or another four weeks if we consider the Election in Colindale). What do we know?

Well here are a few things I've picked up and you can take them with however many pinches of salt you like.

1. Labour sources are confident they've done well in postal votes.
2. Tory sources are far less so.
3. Polling Stations in Labour areas that I checked out seemed busy, tweets seem to back this up.
4. Polling Stations in Tory Areas seemed far less busy. Again tweets seem to back this up.
5. UKIP seem to be conceding they have not done as well as they hoped. One source said "We are just hoping for a good showing now"
6. Lib Dems seem cautiously optimisitic in Childs Hill, less so in Mill Hill and High Barnet.
7. Labour seem very confident in Hale (a key marginal).
8. The colour of the next council is likely to be decided in East Barnet and/Or Childs Hill
9. Labour may have scored a massive own goal targetting Childs Hill Lib Dems. This could undo all the good work elsewhere.
10. Local Tories have admitted that their campaign has been abysmal.
11. Local Labour tell me their cunning plan has worked rather well.
12. Local People seem to have turned up to vote where they thought it mattered and maybe they could engineer a change.
13. Barnet may get its first Green Councillor.
14. I predict Brian Coleman will get less than 600 votes. 

None of this is scientific, just my observation from a drive around a few areas I know and chatting to a few activists I saw. The last is purely my gut feeling.


Don't Call Me Dave said...


You predict fewer than 600 votes for Brian Coleman – down from 700 votes a few days ago. You say it is a gut feeling. As I have mentioned before, I have no idea how it will go in Totteridge, but I think he will do better than that due to name recognition on the ballot paper. I could be completely wrong, of course. Unlike a certain blogger in Barnet, I do admit to being wrong…occasionally.

I think that the very sad situation in Colindale has the potential to make this a very interesting election. Barring divine intervention, Labour should hold all three seats in this ward. If they win seats in East Barnet, Underhill and Hale, we could find a situation where the Conservatives are the largest party tomorrow night, but Labour will be in a position to take over control in June after the by-election, by which time the Conservatives could have voted in their Mayor. The Conservatives nominated Hugh Rayner, but if he loses his seat, would they nominate someone else, or allow the Labour nominee to be elected?

Anonymous said...

Lucky number 13 - I want that Green councillor to be ME!
I made sure not to vote for BC in Totteridge - I like your prediction. Name recognition or not - even Tories know that physically attacking a woman puts you beyond the pale.
On that note - gnite, and sweet dreams.........

Don't Call Me Dave said...

If you look at what happened in Portsmouth, perhaps Rog’s prediction for Coleman will be accurate.

Mike Handycock lost his seat on the council after 43 years. He polled only 623 votes, despite also being the local MP. He was chucked out of the LibDems following sexual misconduct allegations and stood as an independent.

He hasn’t yet been tried or convicted for these alleged offences (which arguably are far more serious than Coleman’s assault conviction) but clearly the public had had enough of him. Et tu Brian?