Friday 15 April 2022

Barnet Council Election commentary - "Bring back Alan Williams all is forgiven!"

 One of the wonderful/terrible things about being so old and having lived for so long in the same place, is that I've seen the tides of politics go out and I've seen them come in. In the mid 1980's, it seeme to me as if the Borough of Barnet was Toryville. All of the MP's were Tories and had been as long as anyone could remember. The Council was staunchly Thatcherite. When I joined the Labour Party at the time, it seemed as if I was performing an act of self emmoliation. No one seriously thought Labour would win. No one thought they had a hope outside of their heartlands such as Burnt Oak, of even winning a seat on council. I was a pretty inactive member. I'd deliver a bag of leaflets, but never attended a meeting and just really wanted to feel as if I was doing something, I was a musician in my 20's and like many such people at the time, I wanted to stake out my territory, without doing to much to actually justify the worthy statements I'd make. My sister was also a member and used to work quite hard and would sometimes come over all self righteous at my laziness, but I had other stuff to do. I was the worlds worst canvasser. I'd knock on someone's door, get chatting, have a cup of tea and end up staying for dinner. The rest of the party would despair, to the point that I'd only get asked to do leaflets.

Towards the end of the 80's, things started to change. Thatcherism was careering off the pier towards it's humiliating end. The local Lib Dems started to scent blood. The Lib Dems had taken Childs Hill ward and were starting to get active in Mill Hill.  In the offices of Burnt Oak Labour, a young man called Alan Williams, started to realise that the Borough was actually their for the taking. In the 1990 election, Labour didn't win any more seats than in 1986, but did increase it's share of the vote significantly. Williams noted that if the top of the Labour polling in Hale ward could add the Lib Dem vote share, they would have got within 300 votes of winning a seat in the ward. Williams did some back of the cigarette packet sums. Hale was in play, Mill Hill wasn't, even with the the Lib Dem votes. What if a behind the scenes deal was done whereby Labour laid off Mill Hill and the Lib Dems laid off Hale? If voters thought their party had a chance, maybe they'd be more inclined to turn up.

1990 Election Results


Hale[edit]

Hale (3 seats)
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
ConservativeLeslie Pym*2,58850.6
ConservativeSheila Scott2,50749.1
ConservativeJack Clarfelt*2,47048.3
LabourMarie Baker1,60831.5
LabourAndrew Dickie1,54530.2
LabourWilliam Parnaby1,50429.4
Liberal DemocratsJames Creighton51610.1
Green (UK)Patricia Duncan4739.3
Liberal DemocratsGeoffrey Jacobs4578.9
Liberal DemocratsQuintin Iwi4158.1
Turnout
Conservative holdSwing
Conservative holdSwing
Conservative holdSwing

Mill Hill[edit]

Mill Hill (3 seats)
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
ConservativeDennis Dippel*2,87955.3
ConservativeAnthony Antoniou*2,83754.5
ConservativeJohn Hart*2,77553.3
LabourIan Parker1,39426.8
LabourMalcolm Perez1,27524.5
LabourAdrienne van Louen1,21023.3
Liberal DemocratsRuth Cohen59111.4
Liberal DemocratsTerry Rollinson5109.8
Liberal DemocratsJohn Mitchell4919.4
Green (UK)Anthony Duncan4769.1
Turnout
Conservative holdSwing
Conservative holdSwing
Conservative holdSwing


A few conversations were held in smokey back rooms ad hands were shaken. What happened in 1994?

Hale[edit]

Hale (3 seats)
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
ConservativeLeslie Pym*1,91441.3-9.3
ConservativeSheila Scott*1,85940.2-8.9
LabourAndrew Dickie1,82039.3+9.1
ConservativeGraham Old1,72637.3-11.0
LabourJanet Heathfield1,70136.7+5.2
LabourWilliam Parnaby1,65335.7+6.3
Liberal DemocratsJames Creighton78817.0+6.9
Liberal DemocratsGuy Patton73015.8+7.7
Liberal DemocratsGeoffrey Jacobs72315.6+6.7
Turnout
Conservative holdSwing
Conservative holdSwing
Labour gain from ConservativeSwing



As you can see, Andrew Dickie won in Hale. The Tories shed 600 odd  votes due to the unpopularity of the national party. What happened for the Lib Dems in Mill Hill was even more astounding.

Mill Hill[edit]

Mill Hill (3 seats)
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal DemocratsSheila Gottsche1,83638.7+27.3
Liberal DemocratsJeremy Davies1,83038.6+28.8
Liberal DemocratsWayne Casey1,81738.3+28.9
ConservativeJohn Hart*1,79537.8-15.5
ConservativeJane Ellison*1,78137.5-17.8
ConservativePeter Holland1,70135.8-18.7
LabourJean Smith93919.8-7.0
LabourGeorge Janeway92319.5-5.0
LabourMichael Epstein91019.2-4.1
Turnout
Liberal Democrats gain from ConservativeSwing
Liberal Democrats gain from ConservativeSwing
Liberal Democrats gain from ConservativeSwing
The Party went from 3rd to first. This was in part due to a huge collapse in support for the local Tories due to the performance of the national party, but if you look at the wafer thin margins, the 'non aggression pact' was a clear contributory factor. The 25 Labour seats and 6 Lib Dems gave them a majority in council of 1. The election of Labour's Andrew Dickie flipped the council.

I was astounded. It never occurred to me that Barnet could be anything other than true blue. Alan Williams took over as Council leader. It was a very different Labour party in Barnet to the one now. They were prepared to be both tactical and strategic in their thinking. Williams lead the council until 2002, when the Tories scraped back in on the the back of the declining popularity of Tony Blair.

The Lib Dems held seats in Mill Hill until 2010. Despite Labour making Hale ward the Holy Grail, it was always a split ward when Labour held seats. When Labour lost, Williams retired from local politics in Barnet. I have to say that I never got on with him, even as a Labour member, but admired the way he transformed the Labour party in Barnet into a machine that won elections. Since he left, they haven't won another council election.

So where are we in 2022. By the 2006 council election, the local Labour party had, by and large, a new team running the show. When the election came, they picked up the plan that hadn't worked in 2002 and tried it again, with similar results. In 2010 an even worse disaster befel them. The local and general election happened on the same day. In Mill Hill, Labour delivered a leaflet saying "Vote Lib Dem, get a Tory". This alienated all fo the Lib Dem voters to the Labour party and where many voted for Andrew Dismore, the local Labour MP previously, they simply didn't bother. Dismore lost by 103 votes. I will always believe that if he'd not put that leaflet out, he'd have won the seat.

In the council elections, the Lib Dems polled their highest ever total, but a whole swaythe of Tory voters, who didn't usually vote in locals turned up and swept the Lib Dems out (I know, I'd switched by then and was one of the candidates). 

But looking at the 1990 election, gives me great hope in Mill Hill. The figures for the Lib Dems were worse in 1990 than they were in 2018.  There was a gap of over 2,000 in 1990, this was overturned. Boris is now unpopular in a way that John Major never was.  

As for Labour? They still are dusting off the 2002 election strategy. I was chatting to a former Labour election agent this morning. We discussed their strategy. He despairs of them. Like me, he wasn't a fan of Alan Williams, but said "Bring him back, all is forgiven". Will Labour blow it again in Barnet? It will be hard, but they seem to be having a damn good go. It is interesting to note that his conclusions as to the flaws in their plans are the same as my observations. Hale Ward has been abolished, so sadly we won't be able to properly assess the change

Mill Hill[edit]

Mill Hill
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
ConservativeVal Duschinsky*3,00950.7+11.3
ConservativeJohn Hart*2,97750.1+8.2
ConservativeGolnar Bokaei2,86748.3+10.3
LabourKatherine Barker1,55526.2+0.4
LabourMike Barker1,43124.1-1.0
LabourKamal Gurung1,30722.0-3.0
Liberal DemocratsRichard Logue1,23620.8+6.1
Liberal DemocratsRoger Tichborne1,20020.2+9.8
Liberal DemocratsDonna Pickup1,04517.6+8.0
GreenMichelle Lynch3015.1-5.0
GreenKwatelai Quartey-Papafio1662.8-2.9
Turnout5,94043.5
Conservative holdSwing
Conservative holdSwing
Conservative holdSwing

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