Showing posts with label Reform. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reform. Show all posts

Saturday, 12 September 2026

To understand Nigel Farage and Reform, just watch The Producers by Mel Brooks

 Have you ever watched The Producers by Mel Brooks? If you haven't, you should. Mostly because it is a brilliant and hilarious film (I mean the 1967 version, not the awful, turgid remake). The central character is a Spiv like chancer called Max Bialystock, who is a highly unsuccessful chancer, who funds his terrible productions by seducing rich elderly ladies and getting them to fund his terrible productions. His life is transformed when he meets earnest accountant Leo Bloom. Bloom realised that Max has invented the perfect scam by accident. All you need to do is get a bunch of naive people to funnel a shedload of money into a show. Promise them the earth in rewards when it is a hit. You them make a production so awful that it closes on the first night, to terrible reviews. Because the show fails, no one will ask for their money back and you keep the lot. All you need is the worst script, the worst director, the worst actors and the worst director. You hype it up to the maximum, offer small bungs to unbribable critics, knowing they will be disgusted and pan the show, Simple, isn't it? The only real problem will happen if the show is actually a success, despite doing everything wrong.

Today I awoke to the news that Nigel Farage and Reform had received the biggest ever bung for a political party from a crypto-billionaire. I simply couldn't help but be reminded of the Mel Brooks classic. For many years, when Nigel Farage ran UKIP, he had the best job in politics. He was a Euro MP. You get paid a fortune, you have almost unlimited expenses and you don't have to do any work. It is a matter of public record that Farage never thought Leave would win the Referendum. When they did, he realised the gravy train was over and UKIP fell apart. I don't know who the Leo Bloom character was who persuaded him to get involved in the Reform project, but clearly something happened. The scam is different. The carrot isn't a juicy job in the EU Parliament, it is a much bigger pot of cash, as we seem to be continually finding more and more. Unlike Max, it is not rich old ladies who are seduced for cash (although strangely rich old ladies are the core of the Reform support base). For Nigel, it is crypto billionaires, etc that are to be seduced. The carrot is simple, give us a pot of cash and we will deregulate the UK economy, so you can make even more cash. As we have seen, the cash rolls in. I don't know too much about the world of crypto, but what I do know is that it attracts gamblers, who love a punt and when they win convince themselves that it is because they are very clever. Just the type of character that a chancer like Farage sees as ripe for financial seduction and rinsing.

I first started having my suspicions when I saw the team he has built. The Tories got absolutely mullered at the last election. The one thing that was clear was that the public hated them. So what would be the most logical thing to do if you were doing a Producers style scam? You'd recruit the most bonkers Tories that you could find, the ones that people either turn off the telly because they are so horrible, or keep it on, because they enjoy watching a car crash. People who were absolutely associated with the failure of the last Tory government. Farage recruited former Home Secretary Suella Braverman. It is the job of the Home Secretary to keep the country safe, so Farage picked someone who had completely failed to do so, and who has no self awareness at all. He recruited Nadine Dorries, who was most famous as culture secretary for giving interviews when completely plastered. He recruited Robert Jenryck, a fomer Justice Secretary who again had a record of total failure. Other key figures are rather strange. Zia Yusuf is the Home Affairs spokesman. Despite being a practising Muslim, he is best known for criticising other Muslims. He has seemingly fallen out with many of his colleagues and also has aspirations to be leader. I speak to many Reform supporters and when I ask them who else in Reform, other than Farage, would they trust with the top job, I am invariably met with silence, or the name of someone I've never heard of. Most are deeply uncomfortable with the dodgy Tories that have been recruited. 

Then we move on  to the script. Max chose a script called "Springtime for Hitler" written by an unreformed Nazi, on the basis that it was the absolute worst one he could find. I won't mention what might be seen as another parallel here. Just that the script was chosen because it was awful. Whcih brings us to Reform policies. Reform are riding high in the polls, but this is not based on actual policies, but on the basis that they are anti immigration and a belief that they will 'do something'. Whenever Reform actually make a policy announcement, it invariably is pulled apart within a couple of days and is never mentioned again. A great example is Nigel Farage's commitment to deploy the Royal Navy in the channel to "stop the boats". There were three major problems with this, The biggest is that we simply don't have the capacity to do this. The very Tories who Farage is so keen to recruit shrank the Navy to a point where it can barely perform its basic defence functions. The second problem is that when you board refugees onto a naval ship, they become our problem. British warships are simply not allowed to sail into French ports and dock without permission. The third problem is that the global situation as it stands at the moment, means that the Royal Navy is not set up for this sort of work, large, relatively slow warships are not designed to intercept small boats and decant people in the middle of the sea from them. We would need a whole fleet of new, fast boats that are purposely designed for the task and we'd need to properly train and fund the whole thing. I know that many Reform supporters would love this, but it is not a trivial undertaking. 

As for Farage's economic policies, this is what he is proposing

  • Public Spending Reductions: Proposes roughly £80 billion to £150 billion in spending reductions across public services, government waste, and administration.
  • Welfare Reform: Aims to slash welfare spending by targeting disability benefits, including removing Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for mild or non-major anxiety, requiring in-person third-party reassessments, and restricting welfare access primarily to British citizens. 
  • Net Zero Scrapping: Plans to abandon net-zero carbon emission targets and subsidies to save billions, though critics argue this creates economic risks and lost revenues. 
  • As you can see, there is virtually nothing that is properly thought out and costed. How many times have we heard Labour and Tories state that they will "cut waste and administration". If it was that easy, it would have been done years ago. When they say they will cut public services, is this librarys, bin collections, street lighting? 

    As for Welfare Reform, whilst targetting disability benefits may sound attractive and we are bombarded with stories of people who are on the take, with no real disability, such broad brush strokes usually end uop hitting decent, honest people who tell the truth and missing those who know how to play the system. I believe that if it would work, the Tories (lead by the likes of Boris, Braverman and Jenryck) would have done it.

    Scrapping Net Zero targets sounds attractive to many. I would agree with many that the whole implementation of the Net Zero agenda has been botched. Given that we have coal and gas reserves, I think it is insanity to import these, when we still have a requirement for them for the country to work. Shipping coal from abroad usually in large,  diesel powered ships adds more carbon to the atmosphere. We should have a proper policy to phase these out, but using our own supplies. We should be doing things like updating planning laws to require all new homes to be energy efficient, have solar panels, batteries etc. We should have sane and sensible transport policies, with long term improvements to public transport and infrastructure. But this isn't what Reform are proposing. They are proposing a sudden jibe in government policy that will throw everything into chaos in planning and infratstructure spending, 

    What does all of this actualluy mean? Well you have a bunch of undeliverable policies, presented by a bunch of largely discredited clowns. What could possibly go right? Well the punch line of The Producers was "We picked the wrong play, the wrong actors, the wrong director, how did it all go right?". Springtime for Hitler was a massive hit, so they blew up the Theatre and all went to jail.

    And therein lies the conundrum. Millions in the UK are totally disillusioned with the mainstream UK political parties. Many feel that they are not being listened to. Many feel that the people who live in the UK are treated badly by our own government, whilst the red carpet is rolled out to immigrants. Simply addressing these fears by saying "All of this is just dog whistle politics stirring up a bunch of racists" is not the way that you win arguments. What has actually happened in the last 10 years is people have become bolder about saying things that had become socially unacceptable. I actually agree that millions of people in the UK, mostly those at the bottom of the pile, get an absolutely raw deal. The estates where the Union Jacks went up, where the is no jobs and little prosperity, have been let down for decades. Everyone knows this and no one is interested, the perception is that there are no votes in it. This is the bedrock of the Reform support. If one good thing comes out of the rise of Reform is that maybe politicians will be forced to address this. If they don't we may yet have the nightmare scenario, that I beleive Farage dreads, where he becomes PM. I think he has seen the film and knows the ending.

    The election will not be decided in wealthy areas such as Camden and Hampstead. It will be decided across the country in places like Derbyshire, former red wall seats. There was a council by-election this week and it is quite sobering. I don't know the area, but clearly the Andy Burnham bounce has passed them by


    My view is that Farage wants to do well enough to keep the cash rolling in, whilst making sure that this is not enough to actually win. The crypto bosses must be kept believing and pouring the cash in, it must be credible. It is pretty clear to me that the donation came because Reform are plunging in the polls. Farage clearly said "We need this now or we are f**k*d" and it worked. Whilst £36 million sounds a lot, consider this. It costs 91p for a second class letter. This won't even cover  a second class mailout to the 48 million registered UK voters. Parties like Labour and The Tories have a well organised team of local activists to deliver these for free. Where Reform have been found wanting is in on the ground organisation. I genuinely don't think donations from crypto billionaires deals with this. What it does do though, is make sure that Nigel Farage won't be short of beer, fags and expensive plonk for a very long time.

    The big tragedy of this is that there are millions of very disenchanted people in the UK who have been taken in by all this. They have hopes and aspirations. They think that these very rich, career politicans care for them. I believe that nothing could be further from the truth. The bottom line is that Reform is not properly run. This is not just my view, right wing super pundit Tim Montgomerie said the same thing earlier this week, after resigning from Reform. 


    Where do I think it will all end for Reform? I suspect there is a clue in the final scene of the Producers.



    Wednesday, 11 February 2026

    My worst nightmare, Reform win the next election

     I had a terrible nightmare last night. Sir Keir Starmer had called a snap general election and Reform UK had won with 450 seats. The Labour Party was reduced to 9 seats. The Lib Dems were the second biggest Party with 130 seats. The Tories had also done rather badly. I was watching the coverage of Nigel Farage at the plinth outside number ten, doing all of the things that Farage does that makes me dislike him intensely. As I was watching, my whatsapp was pinging with gloating messages from my Reform supporting friends and acquaintances.

    Now the thing about democracy is that it does mean that you spend much of your life with people running the country who you can't stand, but at least they get booted out occasionally. We have seen what happens to people in China this week, who disagree with unelected despots. People like Farage are the downside (for me), but whoever replaces Starmer, whenever they come in and whatever party they represent, they will just be transient residents of No 10. The saving grace of my  nightmare is that Farage would be just as transient as Boris, Keir, May and Truss. 

    The real horror of the dream though wasn't Farage himself. If Reform win, whatever you may or may not think of Farage, it will be a personal mandate, in a way that no other British Prime Minister  has had. No one voted for Keir for his charisma or personality. They voted Labour, for the party, Starmer was always just the bloke at the top. If Reform win, then we have to acknowledge that Farage has a mandate. However the problem is that Reform has no one in its ranks with experience of government. The only people who have real political experience of doing top jobs are Tory defectors, who by and large were mostly booted out for being either useless or a bit dodgy. Farage has got very sparse cupboard to choose from, when it comes to appointments. There is an argument that a new broom is needed, but anyone who has ever dealt with civil servants, knows they will run rings about inexperienced ministers. 

    There is a bit of me that is curious as to how Farage would get on with Trump if he became tomorrow. If, as is more likely, the election is 2029, Farage may find himself having to deal with a Democrat, who would be none to impressed with Farage and his links to Trump. 

    In my nightmare, I was thinking about what to say in a blog. The absolute bottom line is that both Labour and The Tories deserve to be decimated at the polls. Starmer's judgement has been appalling. He came out yesterday saying "I've won every fight I've been in". I've watched a lot of boxers make similar claims. Then they get their head knocked off, because they've not really been in a proper fight. I cannot see any scenario where Starmer can regain his credibility. Usually the Captain goes down with the sinking ship, but it is rare for the Captain to ram an Iceberg first. Any sane person would have known how the Mandelson appointment would play out. Starmer lost his chief of staff, but if he couldn't see the advice was flawed, he's an idiot. 

    Then there are the Tories. Kemi Badenoch has had a good two weeks, but she has been given a massive open goal. No one could miss from where she was at PMQ's last week. The sad truth is that one good PMQ in nearly two years is an appalling record. What really shocks me is that Badenoch has no strategy to counter Farage.  She seems to be pushing the party into the right wing fringes. This is suicide. Farage has already claimed that space. He's nicked most of the high profile hard right big hitters already. The Tories tend to win when they are percieved as a sane, centre right party. It is the sensible centre right voters who are moving to the Lib Dems who she needs, but she seems intent on alienating them.

    In my dream, Sir Ed Davey and the Lib Dems became the official opposition. With Starmer being useless, Badenoch fighting a war for the hard right with Reform, no one has asked the question "could the Lib Dems actually win?", which puzzles me. They have experience in government, with the coalition. Davey has played a blinder on the Mandelson issue. He is criticised for being a lightweight clown, but he is a decent man. The Lib Dems showed they could function as a party of government in the coalition. It is really not to my taste, but I could see a scenario where the Lib Dems and either Labour or the Tories have enough seats to form a government. If the Tories had the choice between a coalition with Reform or the Lib Dems, which way would they jump? It is clear to me that Labour would happily ditch Starmer and hook up with the Lib Dems. 


    ....
    The polls tell a very interesting story. The latest poll today shows Reform with a 7% lead over Labour. I cannot imagine that there would be a worse time to be the Labour Party or possibly a better time to be Reform. But they are only on 30%. There is an argument that the right wing voters make up over 50% of the electors, but I suspect that the 21% who are still Tories are not going to switch to Reform. As for Reform's 30%, I also suspect that 10% of them are disgruntled Labour supporters. 

    What this poll doesn't say is how any of these voters would vote tactically. The Lib Dems are masters of getting people to lend them votes. Both Tory and Labour voters can stomach a Lib Dem vote if they percieve it will keep a party they don't like out. My prediction is that the election will be in 2029 and the result will be a hung parliament. I genuinely have no idea how that will break down or whether it will end up with a Tory/DUP/Reform government ( I suspect that would be Badenoch's choice), a Tory/Lib Dem alliance (likely if Badenoch goes and someone like Jeremy Hunt takes over), or a Labour/Lib Dem alliance (Wes Streeting might go for this). I genuionely believe that Reform will not be 7 points ahead by 2029, despite the best efforts of Starme and Badenoch to make them look like a feasable choice. 

    Anyway, I must say that I was glad to wake up. I know there are a few people in Barnet who wished I hadn't but hey ho..

    Tuesday, 23 September 2025

    Nigel Farage declares war on my band, The False Dots

     I literally couldn't believe what I was listening to when I watched the news last night. Nigel Farage has declared war on LEGAL migrants. He clearly stated that it his intention to revoke the right to remain for non UK citizens. On top of that, non UK citizens will not be able to claim benefits. Now, I guess that if you don't like foreigners, that is a wonderful policy. But the effects of this will be catastrophic for millions of people in the UK. Lets get this right, people who came here perfectly legally, worked for years, or decades and have paid taxes are at risk of being kicked out. I know dozens of people who this may affect. People who have a right to remain but are not British citizens. All contribute huge amounts to the UK economy. But there is one person particularly, who it concerns me. That person is the bassplayer in my band, he has been in the band since 1998. Not only that, he has worked for me at the studio for 30 years. I know he pays taxes, because I do the payroll. He has three children, all born in the UK. He came over when the UK was part of the EU and got a right to remain after Brexit.

    Under Farage's rules, if he got ill and incapacitated, he'd get no benefits, despiter over three decades of contributions to the system. As a percentage of his income, I suspect he's actually paid more tax than Farage has. I suspect he's also contributed more to the UK economy than Farage, who was the architect of Brexit, which has cost the UK billions (even Brexit supporting James Dyson has admitted that). 

    Joseph Stalin once said "If you kill one person it is a tragedy, if you kill a million, its a statistic". Farage is clearly interested in making headlines with statistics. He is not in the least bit interested in the tragedies he will cause. For my band, our bassplayer is irreplaceable. For me, he is a friend. For my business, he is a key member of staff. If he is kicked out, what his son will be uprooted from the life he was born into. If he gets ill and needs to claim benefits, he will get nothing in return for the tax he's paid. Most people I know are not concerned about people who have spent decades obeying the law, living legally, working and paying taxes.

    With his statement, Nigel Farage has caused everyone affected stress and upset. For me personally, he has declared war on my band. I am not the only musician in this position. Us creative types collaborate with people with diverse influences.  I am simply not prepared to let a two bit fascist like Farage give my friends, my band and the economy of our nation a beating without fighting back. Farage has drawn a line and millions of decent, law abiding citiziens, who pay taxes and contribute are on the wrong side of it. I am still fully processing my response to Farage. Should I write a song, make a band video, or something else? I honestly don't know. What I do know is that now is the time for Rock Against Racism to be revived.

    Here is a clip of our band in action. This is what Nigel Farage wants to destroy




    Sunday, 30 June 2024

    Farage's Nuremburg style rally demonstrates the lack of political savvy of Reform

    I don't agree with Reform's politics at all, but I didn't write this blog to criticise their policies. I assume anyone reading the Barnet Eye is perfectly capable of making their own minds up. I know a few Reform voters read the blog and we often have interesting chats over a pint at our local pubs. It is fair to say that they are more excited and animated than at any stage since the Brexit referendum. So what is this blog about?


    This blog is more about a couple of absolutely schoolboy errors Reform have made, as a political campaign machine. I've just been watching the Reform rally on Sky News. I was flicking the channels and there it was, a live stream from Birmingham. I was fascinated to see Farage in action. There can be no doubt that he's an excellent public speaker, if you like that sort of thing. Every seat had a bum on it in the hall, Sky said there were 5,000 people in there. Without anyone to scrutinise him, he really was on good form. He was able to debunk many myths to his loyal supporters. He was also able to set the record straight about various scandals etc that have befallen the Reform campaign. I am sure everyone in the hall lapped it up and thoroughly enjoyed their afternoon.

    I actually spoke to someone who voted Reform using a postal vote on Friday. I was surprised as they were not someone I'd expect to touch Reform with a bargepoll. What they said was quite illuminating. The truth is that Sunak has comprehensively lost the team. I asked if the Tories had canvassed them, as they are a registered postal voter and a former supporter. The answer was no. The Tories locally are usually brilliant at this. I can only assume that they've given up on Hendon and are putting their full efforts into seats that they think they can win. I think Reform will poll better in Hendon as a result and the Tories a lot worse. But it won't translate into winning the seat. This is why I think the rally was a huge tactical and strategic mistake by Reform.

    The first mistake was holding a rally like this on the last Sunday of campaigning. I have to assume that Reform packed the hall with 5,000 of their best activists. These are the people who go out and knock on doors and change people's minds. Today is a Sunny day, people are in good moods and many will be at home getting ready for the football. I've done a lot of campaigning and canvassing and the last weekend before the election is the one where you put every last ounce of energy into turning those few voters who may win you aa seat. Except the activists were all at Birmingham. You may say "Well far more will watch Sky News than could ever be knocked up". This is, of course, true but one of the main purposes of canvassing is to identify your supporters, so you can get them out on election day. We all know what Nigel Farage looks like. We all know he's a more dynamic speaker than Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, then again my goldfish is. Most people do not watch long speeches by party leaders, unless they are already converted. However if those 5,000 supporters had been put into, say the 50 most likely target seats, that would be a 100 door knockers in each. If each knocked on 100 doors today, that would be 10,000 engagements in key marginals. If they could turn, say 2,500 Tory waiverers, that would be the difference between winning and coming second. Whatever effect the TV coverage of the rally has had, the butter is spread thin and not targetted. By my estimates, every seat that Reform miss by less than 400 votes on Thursday, they would probably had won if they'd had the 5,000 out there knocking on doors rather than having a love in with Nigel. 

    The second mistake is that it was clear that a huge amount of logistical effort has gone into the rally. I have to wonder whether the resources of the party have been sensibly used in spending the time sorting this out. You could've plonked Farage down with some Reform supporting celeb, fed him tame questions and got the same output. Reform may feel that showing Farage parading and swooning to a home crowd will make him look presidential, but I suspect that most normal people will just dismiss it out of hand. It very much seemed to me that Farage was more there to soak up the adulation than to win votes. I do wonder if they have any real strategy at all to win seats. As a member of the Lib Dems, I know how hard it is for a third party to break through. You have to target areas properly and do a lot of work in them. If the Lib Dems win more seats than Reform, it will not be because the system is broken, it will be because the Lib Dems know how to get the best bang for their buck.

    Which brings us onto the third thing that I think Farage got horribly wrong. Again it went down well with the home audience, but I suspect it will play badly with the wider voting public. It seems that every mishap was the fault of someone else and a conspiracy by the Liberal Elite. Hostile questions from the audience? That was because the BBC picked an audience of Reform haters. Racism from his campaign team? That was the fault of Channel four emplying dodgy actors to wind people up. Then there was his rant about the governor of the Bank of England. Clearly a baddy, although I doubt too many of the 5,000 really had a clue why he'd earned Nigel's ire. I may be stupid and naive and know nothing of politics, but having a rant about someone 90% of your audience have never heard of, about something they don't have a clue about, just makes you look like you are going off on one.

    Another mistake is that Farage has done this in the period after most people have done their postal votes. Most people receive them and do the more or less immediately. This sort of political TV evangelism is ideal for postal voters, but most have been done. Now we are into the in person voters. That is why door knocking is important. 

    The final point which I think they got horribly wrong is the timing. Farage and Reform were clearly hoping that the rally would be the top story on the news tonight. That surely is the point. This shows how clueless they are. The story will be England v Slovakia. By the time News at Ten is on, everyone's memory of Nigels massive rally will be a dim memory. Planning a keynote event before the biggest football match this year was bonkers. If he'd had it on Scotland or Wales, he may have got a better reception. 

    It is pretty clear to me that Reform will do well in terms of numbers of votes. I know plenty of people who will be voting for them. Most are disgruntled Tories. What is much less clear is whether this will transform into actual seats. If they under perform, I predict that Farage will blame everyone, without looking at how naively he marshalled his resources the weekend before the election. Where the Tories are really fighting Reform, they will have people out walking the streets, cajoling waiverers to keep the faith. I'm really not sure that Farage wants to be the Prime Minister. He's seen how quickly the public fell out of love with Boris when the promises evapourated and his true character was exposed. I think Farage knows his limitations. He's a great orator, he is a showman, as he claimed he has charisma. He claimed this was necessary for dealing with ISIS and Putin. Sadly I don't think this is true. What you need is someone who understands the problem and understands what the UK can and can't do. If Farage really believes, as he claims, that Charisma is the key, then I suspect like the result on Thursday, he will never really be given the platform to put things to the test. 

    But then again, what do I know. Over the last ten years I've woken up after votes to shocks on serveral occasions and voters are a fickle lot. But if I''m right, I think this blog may tell you why.